Study raises questions about costs, effectiveness of proposed Utah homeless campus

By Gary Warth

June 16, 2026

A controversial plan to create a mega-shelter on the west side of Salt Lake City, Utah could cost almost 90% more than originally estimated and 38% more to operate, according to a recently released study.

Researchers behind the study also found that successes in similar large shelters have been overstated, and reductions in chronic homelessness in cities with the shelters likely came from increases in permanent supportive housing.

The proposed 1,300-bed facility in Utah has been seen as a one-stop campus where the state’s homeless people can find shelter and be connected to healthcare, addiction recovery and other services that will help them overcome homelessness. 

“This is more than a campus,” Utah’s Homeless Coordinator Wayne Niederhauser said in a September 2025 press release announcing that the Utah Office of Homeless Services and the Utah Homeless Services Board had reached an agreement for the state to acquire 16 acres needed for the facility.

“It’s a turning point for Utah of reimagining hope,” he said. “It will further fulfil the identified need to provide additional beds and treatment in Utah’s homeless response while providing individuals served by the campus a transformative path from crisis to stability and, ultimately, thriving.”

The press release also said the next step was to secure funding partnerships with a goal of opening the campus in 2027.

The cost of building the Utah campus was estimated at $75 million and annual operational costs were projected at $34 million.

A paper released in March 2026 by researchers Kimberly Burnett and Samuel Dastrup, however, estimated the construction cost could be $142 million when compared to the per-bed cost of similar campuses in San Antonio, Dallas, Atlanta, Phoenix and Reno, Nevada.

Comparisons with peer campuses also saw the operating cost increase to $46 million.

The size of the Utah shelter would rival Haven for Hope in San Antonio, which has 1,700 beds over three campuses and is the largest shelter in the country.

An even larger shelter has been proposed in San Diego.

Sunbreak Ranch would have up to 5,000 beds and also offer more than 35 amenities. Backers of the plan estimate a start-up cost of $15 million and an annual operating budget of $75 million, but neither funding for the project nor a site for its construction have been identified.

Sunbreak Ranch has been endorsed by former HUD Secretary Ben Carson, former San Diego Mayor Kevin Faulconer, the late NBA star Bill Walton, 2026 gubernatorial candidate Steve Hilton, the San Diego Police Officers Association and many other individuals and organizations.

Amenities planned for the campus include 12-Step meetings, counseling, mental health and disability referral services, job training and job interview programs. The site would have 24-hour security, transportation and postal services, laundry and storage facilities, a nonprofit general store and even gardening opportunities.

Opponents to the plan have likened Sunbreak Ranch to a concentration camp that many homeless people would not voluntarily use. The concept also has been criticized as untested and its large size raises logistical questions about where it could be located.

The Utah shelter is being planned at a time when the state experienced a surge in homelessness. The count from 2025 found 4,500 homeless people, an 18% increase in one year, with chronic homelessness up 36%.

Burnett and Dastrup agreed that concerns about the rising homeless populations are not unfounded, but they wrote that evidence suggests the primary drivers are rising housing costs and housing instability compounded by additional factors like population growth and stagnant incomes among lower-income households.

They also wrote that most homeless people in the county are experiencing homelessness for the first time and will not become chronically homeless.

The large shelter would follow a treatment-first rather than a housing-first approach, and the researchers noted that Utah policymakers have called for greater accountability to address homelessness.

“However, we did not find evidence of a change in accountability standards or practices that would explain recent trends,” Burnett and Dastrup wrote.

The researchers also noted that Salt Lake County had followed housing-first for 26 years, so it alone could not account for a surge in homelessness over the past five years.

Rather, they noted that housing-first had a 95% success rate in the county based on the number of people who retained their housing for a number of years after being placed in homes.

The proposed campus also reflects a new focus on “high utilizers,” or individuals with frequent interactions with the criminal justice system. Utah policymakers have called for greater enforcement of public-order offenses and longer jail sentences as examples of greater accountability.

The high utilizers would be among people who would receive court-ordered treatment for substance use disorder or severe mental illness at the campus.

Just how many people would qualify for the involuntary treatment is unclear, however, and the researchers wrote that the number could be in the dozens rather than the estimated hundreds.

Burnett and Dastrup looked at results from existing large centralized campuses and found they were not all successful, and some positive outcomes had been overstated.

Dallas and Atlanta saw overall declines in homelessness, they wrote, while Reno and Phoenix saw significant increases.

San Antonio had a relatively small overall increase in homelessness and the largest decline in chronic homelessness among cities with centralized campuses. Dallas experienced the second largest decrease in chronic homelessness.

The researchers found that expansion of permanent supportive housing was more closely related to reductions in chronic homelessness than with centralized campuses.

San Antonio’ has consistently expanded permanent housing since Haven for Hope opened in 2010, and Dallas also has expanded its permanent supportive housing and rapid rehousing, according to the paper.

“These patterns align with a large body of research indicating that permanent supportive housing is the intervention most consistently associated with durable reductions in chronic homelessness,” Burnett and Dastrup wrote. “Shelter expansion, even when service-rich, does not appear to substitute for permanent housing supply.”

The researchers also wrote that Haven for Hope, which has been cited as a model for Utah’s proposed campus, has pivoted since opening with what was called a “tough love” approach.

The campus now has a housing-focused approach, and the change has not resulted in an increase in San Antonio’s homeless population, Burnett and Dastrup wrote.